PlanB made his three BTC purchases at a time when many people were proclaiming the asset “dead.”
PlanB, the developer of the Stock-to-Flow (S2F) model for bitcoin, acknowledged that he had made his third BTC investment. The main coin was trading approximately $20,000 at the time of acquisition.
Due to bitcoin’s sharp price decline from its record high of $69,000 in November 2021, many have declared it extinct in recent months. PlanB, however, said that he made each of his cryptocurrency investments when gloom was in the air.
What is the stock-to-flow model?
The stock-to-flow model, created by a cryptocurrency analyst going by the handle PlanB on Twitter, forecasts the price of Bitcoin based on its circulating supply in relation to the annual quantity of coins produced, which lowers by 50% every four years through a process known as “halving.”
According to the model, which projects that the most popular cryptocurrency may reach a value of $288,000 by the end of 2024, Bitcoin’s scarcity—which is comparable to that of gold and other goods with a constrained supply—lays the foundation for future price increases. However, when the anticipated cost of more than $100,000 never materialized, it started to obviously veer off of its trend line at the close of the previous year.
The ‘halving’s drive BTC price spikes’ argument is unfalsifiable, according to Buterin, who questioned S2F last week. In other words, any price may be used as proof that the stock-to-flow model is accurate.
The S2F model forecasts that Bitcoin will trade between $100,000 and $110,000 in 2022; however, the most recent market crisis caused the price to drop below $20,000 last week, an 18-month low, raising questions about the model’s veracity.
According to CoinMarketCap, Bitcoin is trading at over $21,500 at the time of publication, up 5% from the previous day.
PlanB snaps back
In response to Buterin’s comments, PlanB, the creator of the S2F model, stated that some individuals were searching for “scapegoats for their failed ventures or poor investment decisions” due to the market’s downturn.
He claims that not just newcomers to the crypto industry but even its “leaders” have a propensity for “blaming others and playing the victim.”
Remember those who point the finger at others and those who recover quickly from a collision, said PlanB.
PlanB defended S2F in a previous tweet by saying that the old model “definitely had a solid run” between March 2019 and March 2022.
PlanB’s STF Model and BTC’s Possible Optimistic Future
Most notably, the analyst known by the Twitter handle PlanB created the bitcoin stock-to-flow model (S2F). Based on bitcoin’s circulating supply and the annual quantity of coins created, it offers a possible future USD worth for the digital currency.
PlanB stated in the start of 2022 that the analysis shows the cryptocurrency would reach $100,000 by the end of 2023, adding:
“It would really surprise me if bitcoin will have a lower market value than gold after next halving when BTC S2F 100+.”
It is important to note that PlanB’s predictions have not always been accurate. He stated in April of this year that BTC is unlikely to ever go below $24,500 and that it may reach the $100K mark in 2022.
However, in fact, the asset has been circling about $20,000 for the past few months, and it appears improbable that it will reach the desired price before the year is over.
Variables That Disrupt Stock to Flow
Since they have been in use for thousands of years, commodities like gold and silver have amassed a lengthy history of pricing data, perceived worth, and a presence in both the financial and social spheres. However, at only 14 years old, Bitcoin is still a very experimental technology.
It is quite challenging to predict the price of an item that is so novel on the global scene. Believers are experiencing significant losses since Bitcoin is well below the levels indicated by the programme.